Now: Economics

December 1st 2001, Noticias published the economist Gabriel Rubinstein's forecast El futuro argentino (The Argentinian Future). Two possible and distinct countries were sketched, with 40 % chance of convertability and growth in the first and 60% likelihood for collapse in the second. Pending set of economical variables were financial pace, deposital freeze, likelihood for default and devaluation, drainage of deposits and bank credits, brutal fall in GNP, dramatic fall of Merval and uncontrollable leaps of the Riesgo Pais.

The forecasts painfully fulfilled themselves. Nothing the like had happened before, and as Rubinstein today says, even the worst scenario for the future cannot come close to the apocalypse of 2001. The dynamics of the scenarios for 2008 are similarly positive and negative, with a 50% probability of normal growth and 50% chance of unstable economy.
The outcome is not only given by governmental desitions to adjust macroeconomic imperfections. It depends as much on producer and consumer sectors, that is, microeconomics. Despite the massive recovery Argentinian economics has had the last years, Rubinstein warns Argentina against relaxing too early:

The high debts at sky high interests North American consumer has acquired, followed by crisis in mortgaging and the housing market, might well affect Argentina through a weakened dollar. The govermental handling of Argentinas US$ 6,2 billion debt to the Paris Club will determine The World Bank's approval of a payment plan when Argentina proves stable. Workers unions with leader Hugo Moyano up front are demanding wage increases scaling up to 25%, driving inflation. And lastly, all of us influence inflation: Can I wait until tomorrow to buy what I want to acquire today? New mobile, better car, plasma television?

A stable economy for 2008 depends on the following variables:

Argentina needs a stable dollar at 3,15-3,20 pesos/dollar, and Banco Central must continue to by dollar to fill national reserves.
Bank deposits must continue to rise and consumer index should be fixed at 7% throughout 2008.
Gas, light, water etc. should not rise above 15% on behalf of the middle class, less for the poor.

Summa summarum; Controlled inflation depending on the consumer's will to brake consumtion, stable dollar, dollar savings by Banco Central, increased investments, price control on behalf of nessecary consumer goods according to Pacto Social should open a stable scenario for next year and futher future.

Let us see what the new secretary of treasure, wonderboy and microeconomist Martín Lousteau will propose. Well aware of the producer/consumer challenge, he claims that Paris Club can wait.